Monday, June 14, 2010
:: Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens higher on Monday at 0.8530 having spent most of last Friday's domestic session consolidating its position above US84 cents. The local unit received a strong leg up late last week on the back of stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data and a positive session on Friday for both local and the regions equity markets. With it being a public holiday in most states of Australia today, FX volumes traded is expected to be fairly thin and the Australian Dollar should be kept in a fairly narrow range. Against the EURO and GBP, the dollar is changing hands at 0.7032 and 0.5850.

- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8460 to 0.8560

:: Great Britain Pound: Pound Sterling opens at against the greenback today at 1.4571 after worse-than-expected economic data that had traders questioning the pace of recovery, particularly in light of forthcoming spending cuts at next weeks emergency budget on June 22. U.K manufacturing weakened 0.4 per cent in April compared to most economists forecasts of a 0.5 per cent increase. During Fridays trading session, the pound fell from a high of 1.4758 down to a low of 1.4503. Meanwhile, the pound is changing hands at time of writing at 1.7078 against the Australian Dollar and 2.1089 against the NZ Dollar.

- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.6950 to 1.7250

:: New Zealand Dollar: European sovereign debt concerns appear to have taken a temporary backseat and the New Zealand Dollar opens higher today against the big dollar at 0.6908. Fridays local session was one of consolidation on the back last weeks 25 basis point rise in the official cash rate and confirmation from Chinese Government officials that their exports had in fact increased by 50 per cent in the 12 months to May. During offshore trade on Friday night, the kiwi climbed steadily and hit a 3-week zenith a shade above US69 cents. With the markets closed across the Tasman today, direction is likely to come from local and Asian equity markets.

- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6850 to 0.7000

:: Majors: The Euro opens the new week steady at 1.2127 and has been buoyed by signs in recent days that the European sovereign debt crisis is unlikely to derail global growth. During trade on Friday, the Euro managed to hang onto its recent gains above 1.2000, hitting a 24-hour peak of 1.2152. Adding to the EURO’s strength in the offshore session was the release Friday that saw a fall in US Retail Sales month on month. The headline figure indicated that sales fell -1.1% compared with a previous reading of 0.4% indicating that the consumer on High Street USA is reluctant to part with their hard earned dollars. Against the Japanese Yen, the big dollar initially fell to a session low of 91.20 with the release the US Retail data but as global equity markets rallied it did manage to claw back some of the losses to eventually hit an offshore high of 91.75.

:: Data Releases:
AUD: Bank Holiday
CAD: New Motor Vehicle Sales
EUR: Industrial Production
GBP: Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
JPY: Prelim Machine Tool Orders
NZD: Retail Sales
USD: FOMC Member Bullard speaks

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